Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners headline Haskell

Horseracing Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Oceanport, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The two leading three-year-old colts in the country top a field of eight for Sunday's $1 million Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness champ Lookin At Lucky will be joined by six other three-year-olds.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Lookin At Lucky will be making his first start since winning the Preakness on May 15. The 2009 champion two-year-old male will be ridden by Martin Garcia who guided the colt to victory in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. The pair will start from the inside post.

Lookin At Lucky, owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, finished sixth as the 6-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby when he also broke from the one hole.

"He keeps drawing the rail," Baffert commented by phone.

Installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite for Sunday, Lookin At Lucky has won seven of 10 career starts for more than $2.1 million.

"He looks like he's ready for a big race. It's not an easy spot, but from here on out none of them are easy," Baffert noted. "We're all in the business to see who has the best horse. When you can beat them it makes it even better. Everyone in the race thinks they have the best horse."

Baffert won the Haskell with Roman Ruler (2005), War Emblem (2002), and Point Given (2001).

Super Saver, trained by Todd Pletcher, will also be making his first start since the Preakness when he was eighth as the 9-5 favorite. The colt is the 3-1 co-favorite with local winner Trappe Shot and will break from post six with Calvin Borel again riding.

Owned by WinStar Farm, Super Saver was third in this year's Tampa Bay Derby and second in the Arkansas Derby prior to capturing the Run for the Roses at 8-1.

The colt has career earnings of better than $1.8 million with three wins in eight starts.

"We feel very good about his fitness level," said Elliott Walden, VP and racing manager for WinStar Farm, "and how he's coming up to the Haskell.

"I think at this time of year in the three-year-old crop, it's a new season. The race is going to be run for the three-year-old champion in the second half of the year. You have a few horses on even ground, Super Saver being one of them. That's one of the reasons we're going to Monmouth. We want it to be settled on the track."

WinStar Farm horses Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday won the Haskell in 2006 and 2007, respectively.

Trappe Shot won Monmouth's Long Branch Stakes earlier this month. The chestnut colt will be ridden by Alan Garcia from the far outside post.

"He's doing great," trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said. "We know he likes it (Monmouth)."

Here is the complete field for the Haskell in post position order: Lookin At Lucky, Martin Garcia, 5-2; Afleet Again, Joe Bravo, 12-1; Ice Box, Jose Lezcano, 9-2; First Dude, Ramon Dominguez, 6-1; Our Dark Knight, Elvis Trujillo, 15-1; Super Saver, Calvin Borel, 3-1; Uptowncharlybrown, Rajiv Maragh, 15-1 and Trappe Shot, Alan Garcia, 3-1.

Last year's Haskell was won by eventual Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. In 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness champ Big Brown captured the race on his way to being voted that year's champion three-year-old colt.

The Haskell, the track's premier race, will be televised on ABC with a post- time of 5:45 p.m. (et).

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP

With the first NFL preseason game less than two weeks away, it is time to start thinking about football once again at MySportsbook.com. Reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson is currently the 5-1 co-favorite to win the award again alongside Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning.

This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone after his all out assault on the record books last season. For those suffering from amnesia or were under a rock last football season, all L.T. did last season was set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns (28), total touchdowns (31) and total points scored (186) to go along with his 1815 rushing yards and 508 receiving yards. At 6-1, Tom Brady is next in line which isn’t surprising considering all of the firepower the Pats added over the off-season. With the addition of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker; it would be quite difficult for Brady’s numbers not to improve from last years 3529 yards and 24 touchdowns. There appears to be some decent value in Drew Bees at 10-1 considering he probably would have won the award last year if it wasn’t for L.T.’s record breaking season.

There is no reason to think the Saints will come back to earth this season and playing in a weak NFC, they should have as good a shot as any to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. At 15-1, Donovan McNabb could also be worth a look. Remember, many felt he was the MVP of the first half of the season before going down with a season ending injury. Reportedly, he is in great shape and well ahead of schedule to return to form. Also, he could have some added motivation to put up big numbers this season with the Eagles using their first pick in the draft on McNabb’s future successor Kevin Kolb.

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