Line of Scrimmage: Norv Turner - Bad Things Happen in Threes

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02/20/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They're rejoicing in Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland right about now.

Norv Turner is an NFL head coach for the third time, having taken over for Marty Schottenheimer in San Diego, and the rest of the AFC West is licking its collective chops.

"Aw," you insist. "Give Norv a chance!"

No thanks. Turner got nine seasons worth of chances, minus those final three games of 2000 in which Redskins owner Daniel Snyder sent Norv on an early, ineptitude-forced vacation.

The record - 58-82-1 in nine years with Washington and Oakland - should speak for itself. The number of playoff appearances and postseason wins - one each - should too.

Norv Turner is simply not a quality head football coach, and I'm not sure that a Chargers Super Bowl win, which could realistically come as early as next season, would necessarily prove otherwise. Turner might just raise the Lombardi Trophy next February in Glendale, but at best, he's a caretaker in the class of Barry Switzer or George Seifert.

At worst, he's a disaster. With the Redskins and Raiders, he was the quintessential "player's coach" albeit one that had little clue how to actually motivate those players. He was even-keel to a fault, rarely inspired greatness in important division or rivalry games, and more or less left both franchises in worse shape than he found them.

"Yeah," you're telling me, "but that great offensive mind!"

That great offensive mind, which indisputably functions at a John Nash-like level when Turner wears the coordinator's headset, loses some of its cellular activity when Turner assumes the head coaching reins.

In his seven years with the Redskins, Turner's teams were top 10 in the league in yards exactly once. The Raiders finished in the bottom half of the NFL in both points and yards in each of Norv's two years in Oakland.

And look at all those great signal-callers that the purported QB guru helped guide in his nine seasons as head coach. Heath Shuler became the next Sonny Jurgensen, right? Turner seemed to have a great rapport with consummate winners Jeff George and Kerry Collins, too. The best quarterback Norv coached in the close-to-a-decade he spent as a head coach was probably Trent Green, who the Rockne-like Turner let walk away via free agency after the 1998 season.

Are the Chargers headed on a path to destruction simply because they hired Turner? Of course not. San Diego still has the best offensive player (LaDainian Tomlinson) and defensive player (Shawne Merriman) in the league, has a bright young quarterback in Philip Rivers and other first-rate talents like tight end Antonio Gates and nose tackle Jamal Williams. With that nucleus and the bitterness of last season's shocking playoff exit in their rear-view mirror, you can expect the Chargers to win the AFC West and make a serious run at the franchise's first Super Bowl title.

But the very same would have happened had the Spanos family and co-conspirator A.J. Smith hired Mike Singletary, Mike Zimmer, Rex Ryan, Ron Rivera, or someone else who hadn't already proven himself to be an utter failure as a head coach.

The same would have also happened had the Chargers hired Barry Switzer. Which in a way, they did.

...AND IN SAN FRANCISCO

Fans of the 49ers should be fearful too. Turner's departure leaves a gap at offensive coordinator, and early speculation has centered on the possible promotion of San Francisco wide receivers coach Jerry Sullivan to the position.

The 62-year-old Sullivan has a ton of experience as an NFL assistant, but his only year as an offensive coordinator in the league ended in abject failure. Sullivan steered the attack of the 2003 Arizona Cardinals, who finished dead last in the league in scoring (14.1 points per game) while going 4-12 and hastening head coach Dave McGinnis' exit from town.

Finding a credible coordinator candidate at this late stage of the offseason is problematic, but I've got one - Mark Whipple. Whipple was quarterbacks coach in Pittsburgh for the past three seasons, and was the odds-on favorite to become offensive coordinator if either Ken Whisenhunt or Russ Grimm had been tabbed as new head coach of the Steelers. Instead, Whipple is out of a job, an ignoble fate for a man that helped mold Ben Roethlisberger into one of the top young quarterbacks in the league.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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